Osun 2018 and the question of zoning by Olabode Akinlabi (opinion)

macfranc007 May 31, 2018 Nigeria News today & Breaking news ▷ Read Naija news 24/7 Jerrywright Ukwu

Editor's note: Public commentator, Olabode Akinlabi, writes on the reoccurring and controversial issue of zoning in Osun politics as the state prepares for a governorship election slated for Saturday, September 22.

Read below:

As far as All Progressives Congress (APC) in Osun state is concerned, the governorship race can take off for all aspirants and vibes of electioneering campaign can be felt now, for the blind would hear the drumbeat from different campaign slogans and sloganeering. Politicians and political hawks, the ‘erukus’ (roughnecks) and the rumour mongers; the political marketers and political ‘harlots’; professional supporters and induced sympathizers have since resumed work.

The show of strength and flaunting of ego heralded the last meeting the party leadership held with all aspirants at the party secretariat in Osogbo, but the beauty of politicking attracted bystanders. Now, the outgoing governor, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola would once again be reminded that he is truly on home-run, because those who are interested in his job from the ruling and opposition parties have begun political press-up in earnest.

However, some salient issues must be looked into if APC still aims to be a governing party after Aregbesola and that is the issue of conventional zoning. We have read and heard the governor saying zoning is not embedded in the constitution of the APC and that the party could zero in on any aspirant that pleases the party structure cast for the shadow election. Legally speaking, the governor is right, because it is envisaged that merit and strategies of the lucky aspirant should win him or her primary election.

However, it must be noted that I chose the words ‘conventional zoning’ advisedly because the dynamics of politics is different, the chemistry for winning the main race is different and the logic to achieve victory in each election differs. Left to me, I would have loved to stand by ‘meritocracy,’ where the most qualified candidate would be elected to govern the state, but logic and merit, in most cases, in a developing nation like ours do not win election; sentiment or emotional attachment is the potent weapon that can win vote.

Besides, every politics is local and each political space has its unique selling proportion. Let it be known that there is always a conventional zoning arrangement with us in our political engagement. So, it is gratifying to say there is no zoning arrangement in one party constitution, when we all know that those who are striving to blur the line of zoning arrangement are themselves product of zoning formular.

Shall we make it a top-bottom approach, President Muhammadu Buhari hails from the north (northwest) and his vice, Professor Yemi Osinbajo, SAN comes from the southern part of the country, southwest to be specific; even the president of the Senate comes from north-central, while his deputy Ike Ekweremadu hails from the southeast. Besides, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Rt. Hon. Yakubu Dogara comes from northeast while his deputy, Honourable Lasun Yussuf comes from the southwest; this is because APC does not have appreciable presence in the south-south.

In the state of Osun, while Governor Aregbesola was elected, the geographical delineation of Osun-east senatorial, was the wager used by his party when he came to the political scene of the state in 2007. The battle was fought and the baton was conceded to him, because the then elders of the party led by Alhaji Shaibu Oyedokun, who later defected back to PDP, argued in favour of Ife/Ijesa senatorial district. The arguments and concession held at the part secretariat of the then AD (Alliance for Democracy) that later transmuted to ACD (Action Congress of Democrats) before it became AC (Action Congress) and Aregbesola benefited from the arrangement.

It would be recalled that Osun east senatorial was considered then, because the argument advanced that Chief Bisi Akande and the then incumbent governor, Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola hail from Osun central. So, in the principle of natural justice other senatorial should have the bite in the governorship seat and reason prevailed after sentiment had been espoused.

Of course, Aregbesola was a very popular aspirant, but it must also be noted that he came at the nick of time, because if he had come when the political sentiment favoured Osun central, he might have been victim of political calculation resulting from conventional zoning. So, if Aregbesola says there is no zoning arrangement in the party constitution, he is only being academic; for he knows that zoning has come to stay.

Assuming without conceding that there is no zoning formular in the political arrangement, why would the deputy governor be picked from Osun central and the Speaker of the state House of Assembly comes from Osun west? We could have settled for all the elected posts in one area if zoning does not exist. In that wise, the governor should not play to the gallery on the matter.

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Having exposed the lies behind the disowning of zoning, the next is to impress it on the political strategists of the APC that logic does not win election in Osun, emotional attachment does. The perception out there is that the national leader of APC is hell-bent in foisting his nephew who is currently the Chief of Staff to Governor Aregbesola, Mr. Gboyega Oyetola on the party and that Aregbesola has been mandated to ensure his success at the shadow election, by deploying the party structure he holds behind him.

However, majority of the people in Osun think that the plot to install Oyetola is an antics by the Lagos politicians to further dominate political and economic opportunities reserved for Osun people and so, soldiers of resistance are building up against the perceived Lagos posted governorship aspirant on daily basis, plus the fact that Oyetola hails from Osun central which had longer years on the governorship seat.

I know that some political merchants would fault the perception when they meet with the governor, but perception matters in politics. It would be recalled. that perception and sentiments worked magic for the election of the opposition in Osun west rerun senatorial election, an election that handed victory cheaply to Senator Ademola Adeleke; cheaply because the perception that Aregbesola orchestrated the death of Senator Isiaka Adeleke and the sentiment that candidate of the ruling party hails from the same town, where the Speaker comes from, won the election for the PDP senator.

The by and large of the story is that, if APC fails to address the salient issue of zoning arrangement and sentiment of the people on the demand for a home-base politician, then the party should prepare to return to the trenches, where opposition operates and wait until future beckons again.

Yes, spin doctors may rely on achievement of Aregbesola to weather the storm of zoning formula, but it is proven time and time again that emotion is stronger than logic and if the catalogue of his achievement could not win him the senatorial west; it would not work for a wrong candidate from wrong zone again. Of course, Oyetola is qualified and competent to stand for election as a Nigerian who enjoys all rights, but he could be a victim of evolving political development which stands on conventional zoning arrangement and perception. It is given that any further attempt to deodorize his candidature would expose him to more conspiracy theories and other aspirants from the other zone apart from the West could be the victims of the raging political development in the state of Osun.

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